題 目📳：Newsvendor Models for Innovative Products with One-Shot Decision Theory（基於一次性決策理論的創新產品報童模型）
演講人：郭沛俊，日本橫濱國立大學教授
主持人：林貴華💣，意昂2教授
時 間🙎🏿♀️：2017年5月4日（周四）下午15:00-16:00
地 點：意昂2注册校本部東區意昂2官网420室
主辦單位🖲：意昂2、意昂2青年教師聯誼會
演講人簡介☝🏽：
本碩博均畢業於大連理工大學👄，並於2000年在大阪府立大學獲得其第二個博士學位，現為日本橫濱國立大學經營學部決策科學系教授🥀。郭教授的研究領域為運營管理，主要包括在不確定因素和不確定模型下的決策分析。他在國際上首次提出了"一次性決策理論"(One-Shot Decision Theory)🔢🦸🏻♂️，該理論對不確定因素下做決策有非常重要的意義。郭教授已在國際重要期刊發表數十篇學術論文，現為IEEE Transactions on SMC、Information Sciences🌔👩🏽🔬、Fuzzy Economic Review等雜誌編委。
演講內容簡介：
This presentation includes two parts. In Part I, we clarify the fundamental differences between the one-shot decision theory and other decision theories under uncertainty to highlight that one-shot decision theory is a scenario-based decision theory instead of a lottery-based one; point out the instinct problems in other decision theories to show that the one-shot decision theory is necessary to solve one-shot decision problems; manifest the relation between the one-shot decision theory and the other probabilistic decision methods. In Part II, we consider newsvendor models for innovative products whose life cycles are expected to be smaller than the procurement lead times. Determining optimal order quantities of such products is a typical one-shot decision problem for a retailer. Hence, newsvendor models based on the one-shot decision theory (OSDT) are proposed. In the proposed models, for each order quantity, the retailer chooses one demand amongst all possible demands while considering the satisfaction level caused by the occurrence of the demand and the relative likelihood of the demand occurring. The selected demand is called the focus point of the order quantity. The optimal order quantity corresponds to the maximum satisfaction level of its focus point. Four types of retailers who choose four different types of focus points, i.e. active, passive, apprehensive and daring retailers are taken into account and the analytic results are given. The proposed models are scenario-based decision models which provide a fundamental alternative to analyze newsvendor problems of innovative products.
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